A few weeks ago I got a call from a work colleague wanting my advice. She said 'My son in law wants to buy a watch as an investment and I told him that you know about watches, so I said I'd ask you what to buy'. To which my immediate answer was 'Don't buy a watch as an 'investment, either buy a watch because you like it or don't buy one at all, because the chances of any watch you buy from a shop window going up are absolutely miniscule'. I ranted for a while until she got the message, not sure if her son in law bought a watch or not, but it just shows that the 'myth' of the appreciating Swiss watch persists.
Of course there are watches that appreciate, but as a rule they aren't the kind of watches you can pick up in your local Goldsmiths or Ernest Jones. No, for those you have to run the gauntlet of the boutiques and in particular the Rolex boutiques.
It's a funny thing, but recently I've noticed that the You Tube watch gurus are starting to subtly change their stance on Rolex. As long as I've been watching they've all been all about Rolex and the unstoppable rise in value that the steel sports models represent. But now all of a sudden, it's reached a point where even they are starting to question the 'value' of these ridiculously overpriced models.
Federico from Federico Talks Watches actually went as far as to openly state that he sold his Rolex Submariner 'Hulk' because he could buy three or four better watches for the money. He then showed a three hand H. Moser & Cie watch he had bought with a small percentage of the proceeds and revealed that he had bought another watch and he still hadn't used more than half of the money he got from selling the Hulk.
You have to say he makes a compelling argument, and elsewhere I think it was Tim Mosso who said in a recent show that anyone looking at a pre-owned steel sports Rolex would now have to weigh it against a Vacheron Constantin Overseas because the Rolex is so overpriced that it is competing with much better watches.
This kind of 'negativity' is unheard of previously and I wonder if maybe this is the start of the turn of the tide for Rolex? Everyone seems to believe that the Rolex bubble can never burst, but I'm not so sure. Social media is very important to brand value these days and if these guys opinions (however small they may be in the scheme of things) start to infiltrate mainstream thinking then we could see a correction. And if that sounds ludicrous then you have to consider that all trends 'start' somewhere, maybe this is the that 'somewhere'?
Of course this is potentially 'good news' for all those people who currently desperately want to buy a steel Rolex now, but... I can't help but wonder if those people are actually invested in the watches themselves or in their 'investment potential' and as such, will they view it as an opportunity to buy the watch they 'always wanted' or will they simply follow the other 'sheople' to the next 'hot brand', which in this case would almost certainly be Omega?
Speaking of ludicrous, I watched another video the other day which featured 'The Timepiece Gentleman'... and I was surprised to find that he came across as quite humble and likeable, so maybe his recent experience with his 'disappearing stunt' has knocked some sense into him? Anyway, what he had to say was rather interesting, and it was something I had not heard before.
Apparently Audemars Piguet and Richard Mille are now pulling a stunt whereby they are offering their best customers (i.e. the ones who get the chance to buy the hottest models) the opportunity to buy the hot new watch and then to sell it straight back to the boutique (thereby netting themselves a healthy profit) so that the brand can then re-sell it in their own official 'pre-owned' boutiques!
Have you ever heard anything more ridiculous or perhaps 'genius'?
At a stroke they keep their best customers happy by offering them a chunk of money for not taking the watch (and crucially the customer doesn't get blacklisted like they would if they flipped the watch themselves) and make a ton of extra money themselves due to the extraordinary prices they are able to charge for the hottest new pre-owned (i.e. not constrained by list price) watch. Unbelievable...!
But is it as unbelievable as the price of the Patek Philippe Nautilus green dial with diamond bezel? Apparently (according to 'Watch Eric' at least) this $94,000 watch is currently trading on the used market at $700,000 and he thinks it could climb as high as $1,000,000 by next year! Crazy.
But doesn't that really mean that the watch is just ridiculously underpriced to start with? But then it's a three hander with a date, Patek Philippe or not, there's surely a limit to what you can charge however nicely finished a watch is, I guess nobody told Richard Mille that though huh...?
By the way, if you're reading this on a mobile you're probably just seeing a wall of text, if you switch to web view you will see there are several videos throughout this post!
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